5 groups of numbers reveal the real Chinese PV industry
Solar Inverter,Hybrid Solar Inverter,Off-Grid Solar Inverter,Solar Power Inverter ZHONGWEI CITY YINYANG NEW ENERGY , http://www.yinyangnewenergy.com
Is the photovoltaic industry really warming up or just the surface? The 5 sets of numbers tell you the real Chinese PV industry.
1, 2.8GW
On August 14th, the website of China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “Operation of China's Photovoltaic Industry in the First Half of 2013â€. In the first half of the year, the total installed capacity of China's photovoltaic power generation was 2.8GW, of which 1.5GW came from the second batch of “Golden Sun†and photovoltaic building last year. Engineering, 1.3GW is a large-scale Photovoltaic Power Station. Distributed PV has almost no contribution in the first half of the year, but with the establishment of 18 distributed demonstration zones, China's distributed PV will be launched in the fourth quarter. It is expected to add 1GW of new installed capacity throughout the year, which is expected to break out in the next year.
Compared with the installed capacity of 680MW in the first half of 2012, the installed capacity of 2.8GW in the first half of the year is very fast, which indicates that the domestic market will be stronger than last year. However, the PV market is still firmly in control of the policy. The subsequent market capacity depends on the government's planning and subsidies. It takes 3 to 5 years for a large-scale start-up.
2, 11%
Up to now, many PV companies listed in the US have released Q2 earnings or financial report expectations. It is gratifying that the gross profit margin of these companies has remained above 11%, of which Artes Q2 gross margin is 12.8%. Trina Solar and Yingli are both 11% to 12%, and Jingke's gross profit margin is 17.7%. This is in stark contrast to the gross profit margin of many companies in the first quarter not exceeding 5%, indicating that the development of China's PV industry in the first half of 2013 has improved compared with the same period in 2012, and the operating conditions of some battery companies have improved.
The improvement of the financial situation of the company in the first half of the year was mainly caused by the rushing phenomenon caused by “double oppositionâ€, the strong rise of the Asian market and the exertion of some enterprises' power station business. Looking forward to the future, it is too early to talk about the continued improvement in the profitability of PV companies. In the second half of the year, the demand in the European market has plummeted due to the quota system. The long-term high-subsidy demand in the Asian market can be maintained for a long time. The production capacity is high and the demand is high. Unstable, corporate profitability is also difficult to judge.
Moreover, the number of photovoltaic power plants developed by different first-tier enterprises is different, and the gap between development sites and profitability is also large. It can be predicted that the gross profit margin of first-tier enterprises will widen the gap from the second quarter, and the gap will become larger and larger in the future. Investing in a power station is more like a venture capital investment. In the component link, the first-line enterprise cost, operating expenses, and product price gap are not large, and the corresponding gross profit margins are similar. Once the performance of the enterprise power station starts to work, the gross profit margin between different enterprises will be greatly expanded. It’s getting better and better to have quality projects in hand, to be able to sell in time, or to be able to get subsidies and electricity bills in a timely manner.
3, 8.5GW
According to experts' estimates, the total installed capacity of photovoltaics in China this year is expected to reach 8.5GW, including 5GW for large power plants, 2GW for Golden Sun Engineering, and 1~1.5GW for distributed photovoltaic power generation. This installed scale means that it will double the total installed capacity of around 4GW last year. In particular, distributed photovoltaic power generation will achieve zero breakthrough.
In the next 3 to 5 years, distributed photovoltaic systems will always have a small thunderstorm, because distributed economics are still too poor, regulations and policies and business environment are not perfect, which takes time to solve. Moreover, the demand for components in distributed systems is small, contributing little to digesting capacity and increasing installed capacity. Unless the civilian distributed market is fully activated, the distributed market is a small role.
Most domestic PV projects will start in September-November. During this period, large-scale ground power stations and distributed PV policies will be clear, and there will be a phenomenon of “grabbingâ€, but this reflects the “metamorphic†development of China's PV market from another aspect. The route, which is still very dependent on national policies, is very uncertain. From 2013 to 2015, China's annual PV installed capacity will be very fixed, and will not change due to distributed development. On the contrary, if the installed capacity of large-scale ground power stations declines, the distribution is not enough to make up for the vacancies, and it is possible to go downhill. of.
4, 2.5~3GW
Although most companies are exempt from anti-dumping duties, the price of 0.56 euros/watt set by the China-EU “Price Commitment†agreement is completely uncompetitive compared to other regions, which may affect sales. In the first half of this year, the export volume of PV products by Chinese companies to Europe was around 4GW~4.5GW, and it is expected to decrease to 3GW or even 2.5GWW in the second half of the year.
The negative effects of the European market have been weakened and accelerated the “shuffle†process of the Chinese PV industry. Some second- and third-tier companies can't ride Europe with price advantage, and first-tier companies will gain more market share by relying on brand, quality and service advantages. More importantly, the “price commitment†sets the minimum export price, ending the marketing method for Chinese companies to lose money and earning money, which will increase the profitability of the company. Without the "quantity", the role of "quality" will appear, so for the "double opposition" in Europe, the industry will increasingly benefit.
In the first half of the year, the European market still accounts for 50% of China's PV exports. It is expected to fall to around 35% in the second half of the year, which will have a certain impact on the company's shipments. At least the first-line enterprises can end the high-shipment phase.
5, 0.9 yuan
According to media reports, the photovoltaic power subsidy program "Notice on Improving the Photovoltaic Power Price Policy" will be introduced during the year. Compared with the March draft, the program has a rise in on-grid tariffs and subsidies, including large-scale photovoltaic power generation. The station implements four types of regional benchmark on-grid tariffs, the lowest grade is adjusted from 0.75 yuan / kWh to 0.9 yuan / kWh, the highest grade is also raised from 1 yuan / kWh to 1.1 yuan / kWh, for distributed photovoltaic power generation subsidies, from 0.35 The yuan/degree is raised to 0.42 yuan.
Even if the benchmark price is set at 0.9 yuan / kWh, there are still companies that believe that the removal of value-added tax is only about 0.75 yuan / kWh, from the current power station construction cost, this price can only be meager profit. If the media said that if the photovoltaic power generation system is installed on the civilian roof, the subsidy obtained will be subsidized by the local desulfurization price of +0.42 yuan, and the electricity revenue will not exceed 0.9 yuan, which is lower than the subsidy of the large ground power station. Extremely abnormal.
The industry can be divided into two to see this problem. First, the benchmark price of 0.9 yuan to 1.1 yuan / kW is not in line with corporate expectations, so the industry does not need to go to large-scale development of ground photovoltaic power plants, because the economics of photovoltaic power generation is too Poor, and large-scale ground power stations have already encountered grid-connected resistance. Some of these resistances are caused by the subjective negative attitude of grid companies. More importantly, grid construction cannot meet the needs of industry development.
Secondly, the distributed subsidy of 0.42 yuan/kWh has no economical effect on the domestic Photovoltaic System. The price of industrial and commercial electricity in the distributed demonstration area can reach 0.9~1.3 yuan/kWh, and the capital is still unwilling to invest, let alone Civil photovoltaic system. 0.42 is not enough to open the Chinese market, it will only maintain the demand for China's PV industry at a certain stage, and it is only a bailout.