There is a rebound in energy consumption, and industrial green development is urgent
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Looking forward to the second half of the year, as the industrial economy stabilizes and rebounds, the energy consumption of added value of industrial units above designated size may rebound, the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will accelerate, and the effect of structural energy conservation and emission reduction will be further revealed. To this end, it is recommended to accelerate the development of industrial green, resolve the overcapacity of the two high industries, resolve economic growth in the western region, and contradict the energy conservation and emission reduction.
A basic characteristics
The decline in energy consumption is obvious.
The energy consumption continued to decline. The emission reduction of major pollutants continued to advance. From January to April 2015, China's industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year, the lowest since 2010. The output of crude energy, cement, flat glass and caustic soda of key energy-consuming products decreased by 1.3%, 4.8%, 6.4% and 1.0% respectively, and the thermal power generation decreased by 3.5%. The production slowdown in high-energy-consuming industries and the optimization of industrial economy led to Industrial energy consumption is reduced.
From January to April, the national industrial electricity consumption was 1,207.9 billion kWh, down 0.8% year-on-year, 5.6 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year, accounting for 69.8% of the total electricity consumption. In the first half of the year, it is expected that the energy consumption of added value of industrial units above designated size will fall by about 7%, exceeding the target of 4% annual decline. It is estimated that by the end of June, the added value of energy consumption of industrial units above designated size will be 1.41 tons of standard coal, which is 26.5% lower than the 1.92 tons of standard coal in 2010.
From January to April, according to the "Environmental Air Quality Standards" (GB3095-2012), the emissions of major pollutants in 74 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and municipalities, provincial capital cities and cities with separate plans have declined. . The average concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 decreased compared with the same period of the previous year. The average concentration of SO2 decreased the most, down 20.2% year-on-year; the average concentration of PM2.5 decreased by 15.8%.
The trend of industrial energy consumption is high. The growth of the energy-carrying industry is weak. From January to April, the electricity consumption of light and heavy industries was 2014 billion kWh and 106.5 billion kWh respectively, up 1.9% and 1.3% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate was reduced by 3.1%. And 6.1 percentage points. From January to April, the total electricity consumption of the four high-energy industries in the chemical industry, building materials, steel and non-ferrous metals totaled 525 billion kWh, down 1.8% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society. The rate is -59.2%. Among them, the electricity consumption in the steel and building materials industry decreased by 6.9% and 6.5% respectively, compared with 1.5% and 10.6% in the same period of last year. The electricity consumption in the chemical and non-ferrous metals industries increased by 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. Retreated 1.6 and 1.0 percentage points respectively.
According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, from January to April, crude steel output decreased by 1.3% year-on-year. The total energy consumption of steel association members' production enterprises decreased by 2.51% year-on-year. The comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 1.13% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline of 0.35%, the decline in production in the steel industry and the decline in product unit consumption have reduced the energy consumption of the steel industry.
From January to April, the elasticity coefficient of power consumption of the four high-energy industries was less than 1, indicating that the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value of the four high-energy industries was in a falling range. Among them, in April, the energy consumption of industrial added value of building materials and chemical industry increased, and the energy consumption of industrial added value of steel and non-ferrous metals industry narrowed.
West China's electricity consumption growth rate leads the decline of pollutant emissions in key areas
In the first half of the year, industrial economic growth and differentiation in various regions was obvious, and the eastern, central and western regions maintained growth, with the western region showing the fastest growth rate. In May, the industrial added value of the eastern region increased by 6.7% year-on-year, the central region increased by 6.5%, the western region increased by 7.8%, and the northeast region decreased by 4.6%. The relatively rapid industrial economic growth led the western provinces and cities to lead the country in terms of electricity consumption growth. Among the 10 provinces and cities with the fastest electricity consumption growth, except Jiangxi, Anhui and Shanghai, they all belong to the west.
From January to April, the emissions of major pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 in key areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta continued to decline year-on-year, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Pearl River Delta regions showing significant declines. The PM10 and NO2 emissions in the region decreased slightly. Compared with the three major regions, the air quality in the Pearl River Delta region is leading, and the Yangtze River Delta region is in the middle. The gap between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is still large.
Major energy conservation and emission reduction policies and regulations were continuously issued and implemented in the first half of the year, and heavyweight policies and regulations related to energy conservation and emission reduction were continuously issued and implemented. Known as the most stringent "Environmental Protection Law" in the history, the pressure on pollutants in the industrial sector is increasing. On April 2, 2015, the State Council issued the "Water Pollution Prevention Action Plan" (referred to as "Water Ten" Comprehensive measures have been adopted to comprehensively improve the level of water pollution prevention and control in China; on April 25, 2015, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Ecological Civilization", and for the first time incorporated "greening" into China's economic and social development strategy; On May 8, 2015, the State Council issued the "Made in China 2025", the "green development" as the basic policy to achieve a strong manufacturing country, and the "all-round promotion of green manufacturing" as a strategic priority and task; May 12, 2015, financial The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Subsidies to standardize and strengthen the management of energy conservation and emission reduction subsidies. Generally speaking, the laws, regulations and policy systems in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction in China are in an accelerated construction stage.
B has a problem
Energy-saving and emission-reducing power is insufficient, and environmental protection pressure is growing.
Affected by overcapacity and the continuous decline in the prices of industrial products, from January to April, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1,734.13 billion yuan, down 1.3% year-on-year. Although the total industrial profit rebounded slightly in April, the unfavorable factors affecting profit growth still exist. First, the contradiction between overcapacity and insufficient market demand remains to be resolved. The prices of industrial products continue to decline, and the growth rate of the main business income of enterprises is low. Second, the inventory of industrial finished products and accounts receivable are on the high side, and the capital chain of most industrial enterprises is still tense. Therefore, the basis for the recovery of industrial profits is still not solid, and the downward pressure is still relatively large. Overcapacity and the tight capital chain constrain the investment in energy conservation and emission reduction of enterprises, and the energy saving and emission reduction of enterprises is insufficient.
According to the implementation of the new environmental protection law by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, in the first half of the year, the environmental protection departments at all levels fully utilized the means of â€œcontinuous punishment according to the day, seizure and seizure, production restriction, and transfer of administrative detentionâ€, and the law enforcement efforts were increasingly strengthened. Strengthen the linkage with the judicial machine and actively promote the convergence of the two laws. The number of consecutive penalties for daily application from March to April is 515% of January-February. The number of applicable limited production and production suspensions is 237% of January-February. The number of cases for seizure and seizure is 125% of January-February. The number of administrative detention cases was 197% in January-February, and the number of cases involving suspected environmental pollution crimes was 204% in January-February.
At the same time, under the impetus of the atmosphere and the ten waters, the pollutant discharge standards of various industries are becoming more and more strict, and the environmental protection pressure faced by industrial enterprises, especially high-pollution industries, is increasing.
The heavy chemical industry with high energy consumption and high pollution is the main body of the economy in the western region. While the two high industries are promoting economic development, the contradiction between energy conservation and emission reduction tasks in the western region is becoming increasingly prominent. On May 5, the Ministry of Environmental Protection carried out the supervision and supervision of the environmental pollution in the Tengger Desert area. Some local enterprises have not thoroughly rectified the environmental pollution problems exposed by the media. There are still unapproved constructions, batch constructions, and trial production. Excessive standards for sewage disposal, hazardous waste management and disposal, and environmental management of industrial park construction projects are not critical. Since the beginning of this year, the construction of a number of major projects in the western region, including comprehensive transportation, energy, water conservancy, ecology, and people's livelihood, will certainly drive the growth of the two local high industries. The contradiction between the development of the two high industries in the western region and energy conservation and emission reduction may become more prominent.
C Trend Outlook
Industrial energy consumption has rebound pressure, structural energy saving and emission reduction effect is prominent
The energy consumption of industrial enterprises above designated size may rebound in the second half of the year. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policies and measures introduced in the first half of the year, the industrial economy is likely to stabilize and rebound, and the energy consumption of added value of industrial units above designated size may rebound. First, industrial production growth has accelerated. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in April. It showed a slight upward trend for two consecutive months. Second, some industrial sectors rebounded significantly. In May, the added value of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points faster than that in April. The added value of high-tech industries increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3.2 percentage points higher than the entire industry. Secondly, a number of major infrastructure projects have started construction. The key projects built in the western region in the past few years have been put into operation one after another, which will promote the rebound of industrial energy consumption to some extent.
PPP mode promotes the rapid development of the environmental protection industry In the second half of the year, the environmental protection industry will accelerate its development under the promotion of many favorable policies, especially the â€œGovernment Purchase Service (PPP)â€ environmental protection projects will set off a construction climax. On April 9, 2015, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the â€œImplementation Opinions on Promoting Government and Social Capital Cooperation in the Field of Water Pollution Prevention and Controlâ€, which clearly defines the water market from opening to social capital and encourages it in water. The PPP model is vigorously promoted in the field of pollution prevention and control. On May 25th, in the PPP project library launched by the National Development and Reform Commission, the number of environmental protection projects was the largest, with a total of 370, accounting for 35% of the total. At the same time, local PPP projects were released quickly. By the end of May, 22 of the 34 provinces and cities nationwide had announced PPP project promotion plans with a total investment of more than 3 trillion yuan, including 321 environmental protection projects with a total investment of 189.584 billion yuan.
The effect of structural energy conservation and emission reduction further highlights the second half of the year, the industrial structure will continue to adjust and optimize, and structural energy conservation and emission reduction will make progress. First, high-end, intelligent and high-tech products that meet the requirements for consumption upgrading will grow rapidly, especially with the implementation of the various policies and measures of "Made in China 2025" and the implementation of the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Ecological Civilization". Energy, high-tech industries and emerging industries will enter a period of rapid growth and become an important force supporting industrial production growth. The pace of industrial structure optimization and upgrading will accelerate. Second, the traditional two high-industry market demand shortage is difficult to resolve in the short-term, and the output of key industries such as steel and building materials has reached a peak platform period. With the increase of environmental protection law enforcement, these industries are facing greater downward pressure. In the second half of the year, with the rapid growth of low-energy, high-tech industries and market demand, the traditional two high-tech industries will continue to adjust, and the structural energy-saving and emission-reduction effects in the industrial sector will be further highlighted.
D Policy recommendations Accelerate industrial green development and resolve the overcapacity
Accelerating the industrial green development First, we will do a good job in the implementation of the 2015 industrial green development special action, improve the clean and efficient use of coal in key industries in key regions, and promote the establishment of a national industrial energy conservation monitoring and analysis platform for key energy-using enterprises, and initially establish Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas. The coordinated development mechanism of comprehensive utilization of industrial resources in the region ensures the realization of industrial energy conservation, water conservation, clean production, and comprehensive utilization of resources. Second, focus on the relevant requirements of "Made in China 2025", carry out research on industrial green development strategies and countermeasures, summarize the progress of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", and compile the "13th Five-Year Plan for Industrial Green Development". The third is to conscientiously implement "Made in China 2025", build a high-efficiency, low-cost, clean green manufacturing industry system, develop green products, build green factories, develop green parks, build green supply chains, and expand green enterprises according to the whole life cycle concept. Strengthen green supervision.
To resolve the contradiction between overcapacity in the two high industries, one is to use the â€œOne Belt, One Roadâ€ strategy to replace the output of products with capital output and to resolve excess capacity through â€œgoing outâ€. We will formulate comprehensive guidelines for the â€œOne Belt and One Roadâ€ country industry investment, guide and promote the advantageous industries such as steel to go out, and promote the transfer of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel to foreign energy resources through the construction of production bases along the â€œBelt and Roadâ€ countries. Drive domestic output of overcapacity. The second is to study and formulate a new mechanism for eliminating backward production capacity based on systemic standards such as energy consumption, emissions, and safety, and strictly control new capacity in industries with high energy consumption and high pollution. The third is to effectively implement the new environmental protection law, strictly enforce environmental law enforcement, severely crack down on environmental violations in accordance with the law, and force high-energy-consumption and high-pollution enterprises to increase investment in environmental protection facilities, forcing high energy consumption levels, large pollution emissions, and low added value of products. The production enterprises are accelerating the elimination. The fourth is to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional high energy-consuming and high-pollution industries. Promote the combination of mobile Internet, cloud computing, big data, and Internet of Things with traditional manufacturing industries, and use "Internet +" to create new advantages in traditional industries.
To resolve the contradiction between economic growth and energy conservation and emission reduction in the western region, it is necessary to accelerate the industrial green transformation in the western region and accelerate the development of green industry. In combination with the development of the western region of the country and the development strategy of the â€œNew Silk Road Economic Beltâ€, the new project will be strengthened to evaluate the environmental impact assessment and accelerate the industrial restructuring and industrial transformation and upgrading in the western region. There is a rebound in energy consumption. The green development of industry is an urgent task. Second, it is to strengthen the characteristics and advantageous industries of the western region and become a pillar industry for regional economic development. Yunnan, Chongqing and Ningxia focus on the development of large-scale machine tool manufacturing systems, Sichuan focuses on the development of hydropower equipment and heavy machinery manufacturing, and Shaanxi, Chongqing, Guizhou and Sichuan provinces and cities focus on the development of automobiles and related supporting industries. The third is to give play to the advantages of energy and resources in the western region, vigorously develop distributed smart grids, and improve the utilization level of clean energy such as wind power and hydropower; vigorously develop high value-added products, extend the supplementary industrial chain, and realize the transformation from primary processing to intensive processing in the raw material industry. (Contributed by the CCID Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)
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