Photovoltaic New Deal: Conversion efficiency is by no means "slap the head"
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The "Opinions" set ambitious targets for the photovoltaic sector, aiming for an average annual installation of 10GW from 2013 to 2015, with a total capacity of over 35GW by 2015. This is the fourth time the target has been raised, showing a significant increase compared to the previous 21GW—up by 66%. While some in the industry question whether this surge is merely a political move to counteract the European trade war, others believe it reflects a genuine commitment to growth. Experts emphasize that with proper policy support, these targets are achievable. Analysts from TrendForce Green Energy suggest that the 35GW goal can be realistically distributed as 6GW in 2013, 10GW in 2014, and 12GW in 2015. With clear policy guidance, the pressure is manageable.
A major portion of the target will rely on the rapid expansion of distributed photovoltaic systems. According to the "Opinions," the performance of local governments in promoting distributed solar power will be measured as part of their energy-saving evaluations. Several provinces, including Zhejiang and Jiangxi, have already introduced supportive policies, while others like Guangdong are expected to follow soon. This shift indicates a growing emphasis on decentralized solar projects, which are likely to diversify both in application and implementation methods.
Improving Conversion Efficiency
To accelerate industrial restructuring and curb excessive production capacity, the "Opinions" impose strict efficiency standards. New PV manufacturing projects must meet minimum conversion efficiency thresholds: at least 20% for monocrystalline silicon cells, 18% for polycrystalline silicon, and 12% for thin-film technology. These requirements have drawn mixed reactions. Some companies argue that they are challenging, especially given current industry benchmarks. However, industry leaders claim that leading enterprises can meet these targets without difficulty. While some may see these numbers as high, experts point out that cost considerations play a crucial role. For example, although foreign manufacturers like SunPower and Sanyo achieve higher efficiencies, their costs are significantly higher than those of domestic producers. Thus, the "Opinions" aim to balance efficiency with affordability, ensuring sustainable progress.
Future Policies and Implementation
Since the initial announcement in December 2012, the "Opinions" have taken over half a year to take shape. However, the real impact depends on the supporting documents issued by various ministries. Questions remain about when specific measures such as fixed electricity prices, subsidies, and loan policies will be implemented. According to insiders, these details are expected to be released before the end of September this year. The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, and other agencies are working on related policies, with some already in the consultation phase. As Gao Hongling noted, the next step is to ensure that these policies are not just theoretical but actionable, paving the way for a more efficient and sustainable photovoltaic industry in China.
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