The macro-control policy should be stable and not to swing back and forth
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August 31 08:36:45, 2025
The Chinese economy, after a challenging climb, is now showing signs of stabilization. On the 3rd, Premier Li Keqiang delivered a keynote speech at the 10th China-ASEAN Expo, emphasizing that while the economy has remained stable in the first half of the year, it is still not time to relax or take anything for granted. Although there are ongoing challenges and uncertainties, the government remains confident in its ability to meet the main economic and social development goals for the year. The focus is on laying a solid foundation for future growth, ensuring long-term sustainability, and maintaining healthy development.
A key point raised by Premier Li was the importance of maintaining a reasonable economic operating range. He explained that macroeconomic regulation aims to prevent extreme fluctuations and keep the economy within a stable zone. This "reasonable interval" includes a lower limit focused on job creation and growth, and an upper limit aimed at controlling inflation. By keeping the economy within this range, the government can ensure stability and confidence among both the market and the public.
According to the government’s annual report, the target for 2013 was a GDP growth of around 7.5% and a CPI increase of about 3.5%. So far, the data shows that the first half of the year met these targets: GDP grew by 7.6%, and CPI rose by 2.4%. Employment also remained relatively stable, with 7.25 million new urban jobs created and over 171 million migrant workers employed. These figures indicate that the economy is performing well within the expected range.
Experts have noted that despite global economic recovery being slow and internal structural issues persisting, China has managed to maintain a stable economic environment. This stability has helped build confidence in the market and society. Recent data from various indicators—such as CPI, PMI, trade, and industrial output—suggests that the economy is bottoming out and gradually stabilizing.
A survey titled “Questionnaire on the Macroeconomic Situation and Policies of China in 2013†found that 72% of experts believe the economy is operating steadily and within a reasonable range. Many analysts expect inflation to remain under control and consumer confidence to grow in the coming year, leading to an overall optimistic outlook for China’s macroeconomic performance.
In light of the current stability, experts stress the need for consistent and steady macroeconomic policies. They warn against sudden shifts or overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Instead, a balanced approach is needed—one that combines structural adjustments, reform, and growth-stabilization measures. Premier Li emphasized the importance of making macroeconomic regulation more scientific, forward-looking, and targeted.
Analysts from Haitong Securities suggest that while a large-scale stimulus package is unlikely, the government is preparing for potential risks and planning ahead in case of any economic setbacks. The concept of a "reasonable interval" reflects a policy direction that prioritizes stability and gradual progress.
Some economists argue that while macroeconomic policies should remain steady, microeconomic strategies must be flexible and adaptive. Wang Hongyu from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the key is to balance government intervention with market forces, ensuring efficient resource allocation and fostering innovation.
Finally, the current period of economic stability presents an opportunity for structural transformation and upgrading. Experts agree that without significant reforms, China may lose its long-term growth potential and global competitiveness. Premier Li highlighted the need to shift toward a more sustainable development model, focusing on innovation, efficiency, and market-driven growth.
By embracing transformation and upgrading, China can enhance its economic resilience and secure a more prosperous future.