US double-double disaster against China's PV and more than US$3 billion in exports

Abstract According to the plan, today (December 11) is the US Department of Commerce announced the second day of China PV "double reverse" the final decision. In the period close to December 11, people did not see any official information about the final ruling, and even had been hoped to resolve the conflict...
According to the plan, today (December 11) is the day when the US Department of Commerce announced the final "double anti-" final ruling against China PV. In the period close to December 11, people did not see any official information about the final ruling, even at the APEC summit, which was once expected to resolve conflicts, this topic has not been raised.

According to the judgment of the industry, the dilemma of China's PV in the US market may not be reversed. The market has pessimistically predicted that if the US "double opposition" to China PV is settled, it will jeopardize China's PV exports of more than 3 billion US dollars.

The house leaks in the evening, and on the eve of the US “double-reverse” final ruling (December 5), the Canadian Border Services Agency officially launched anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar photovoltaic products originating in or imported from China. survey.

A person familiar with the North American market said to the Securities Daily reporter that "this is actually a chain reaction. Canada's 'cutting' of China's photovoltaics is not unexpected." There are two reasons for this. First, as a strategic alliance and living in the North American market, Canada must be in step with the United States. Second, the Canadian PV industry has indeed declined from nearly 100 companies in the most brilliant years to more than ten today. While the North American market is not expected to shrink, crowding out China's PV, the market vacancies will be mainly supplemented by the Canadian, US and European PV industries.

Strive for the second "double-reverse" reconciliation

As reported by relevant media, today's PV industry in China is facing the "double opposition" of Canada and the second "double opposition" of the United States is not as "exciting" as it was at the beginning. But this does not mean that the Canadian and US markets are not important to China's PV.

"China PV can indeed make up for the losses in the European and American markets through domestic and other emerging markets. But in the long run, the PV market in Europe and the United States has high growth potential, which is a market that cannot be lost." A PV company's top management to Securities Daily The reporter said, "In addition to this, the industry ignores the "double opposition" that comes one after another, especially the most influential US double 'double counter'. There is another reason: even if efforts are made to resolve the second 'double reverse', Unable to recover the "decision" that has been set.

The United States announced on October 11, 2012 a "double anti-" final ruling on China's photovoltaics, showing that all Chinese PV products exported to the United States must pay an anti-dumping tariff of 18.32%-249.96% and pay 14.78%-15.97%. Countervailing duties.

However, before and after this, China's photovoltaics rationally circumvented tariffs in the form of “curve to save the country”. The companies have assembled photovoltaic modules in Taiwan and assembled them into components in the country and sold them to the United States.

In order to completely block the "curve save the country" road of China's photovoltaic industry, on January 23, 2014, the US Department of Commerce decided to launch a second anti-dumping and countervailing investigation on China's US PV products. Different from the first time, this time, in addition to mainland China, there are also Taiwan.

In June and July of this year, the US Department of Commerce announced that there were subsidies and dumpings for crystalline silicon photovoltaic products that were originally exported to the United States from China and Taiwan. Initially, a countervailing duty of 26.89% to 35.21% was imposed on Chinese imported solar panels. And the dumping margin of mainland China products is 26.33% to 165.04%, and the dumping margin of Taiwanese products is 27.59% to 44.18%.

“Although after a 'double counter', China PV adopted the method of purchasing Taiwan's battery to avoid tariffs and even gained more market share in the US market, but it also drastically squeezed the profits of China's PV. The 'double-reverse' strike is devastating, and it will not be better than a 'double-reverse'." The above-mentioned corporate executives told reporters, "Therefore, the industry, especially the downstream manufacturing enterprises, lost. Fight for the power of reconciliation."

China's PV in hand negotiating chips lose effectiveness

Taking the Sino-European photovoltaic dispute as a guide, the final "reconciliation" is not the result of their own courtesy. It is because the amount of bargaining chips is sufficient. As for the second "double opposition" in the United States, China's photovoltaics originally had a card.

On January 20, 2014, after a thorough investigation, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China implemented a trade remedy measure of “53.3%-57% anti-dumping duty on US-imported solar-grade polysilicon”; after that, solar-grade polysilicon was suspended on August 14. The processing trade import business application acceptance (“No. 58 Document” is equivalent to temporarily prohibiting the import of solar grade polysilicon by processing trade).

According to Circular No. 58, the reason for temporarily prohibiting the import of solar grade polysilicon by processing trade is because China imported solar grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea on January 20, 2014 and from the EU on May 1, 2014. After importing solar-grade polysilicon to adopt trade remedy measures, the import of polysilicon under China's processing trade has surged."

The industry generally believes that "No. 58 text" is a remedy. As a result, the trade remedy measures for the United States to import 53.3%-57% anti-dumping duties on solar-grade polysilicon can really generate deterrence, by forcing the US polysilicon giants to force them to lobby the government and the industry in the United States. Concession in the second "double opposition" of China PV.

However, within two weeks after the publication of Circular 58 (August 14-August 29), grassroots departments rushed to approve more than 100,000 tons of polysilicon processing trade import applications. The card, which could have been negotiated with the United States on the second "double opposition", lost its effectiveness.

For the future, Solarbuzz analyst Dr. Lian Rui told the Securities Daily reporter that “the Canadian policy has always been to protect the local industry. Previously, it had required local products to occupy a certain proportion of the PV modules produced in the country. Since then, There have been related parties to the WTO [microblogging], Canada was eventually asked to correct. Nowadays, Canada has protected the local industry through the 'double reverse' disguise. However, considering the market size, Canada's double opposition to China's PV will not produce too much. The big impact, but in contrast, the impact of the US double reverse will be very intense."

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